The last six runs of ANOTHER ABBOT (3:45 Yarmouth, 6/1) read seven, one, seven, seven, one, eight. That is two wins and four runs where he was nowhere. The market has priced him on the bad four, so he is 6/1 in a nine-runner Class 3 off a mark of 90. His form figures don’t show how his times have moved, and they have been climbing sharply. He started from a modest base, so he is not a quick horse yet, but he is getting quicker and a mark of 90 was set for the horse he used to be. The one that beat him a length and a quarter at Windsor on 10 August has since won a Class 4, and he has gone well over this course and distance before. William Haggas trains and Harry Davies rides. The eighth last time is why he is 6/1, and we are happy to take that price.
Beaten by horses that have won since
In a 20-runner sprint on good to soft at Ayr you want one hard fact on your side, and THE CALTONIAN (2:00 Ayr, 5/1) has one. At Newmarket’s July course on 7 August he finished two lengths behind a horse that has since won a Class 2, off a mark 5lb higher than the day they met. Today he runs in a Class 5 off 67. He hasn’t won in six starts, but his recent times are better than his usual standard and he was third last time, back within a month. Linda Perratt trains, Clifford Lee rides, and he has run over this trip and ground before. That Newmarket run is the best form anybody could want in a race like this.
The last two runs of NO MORE BOLERO (4:38 Pontefract, 5/1) were both sixths, and that is why he is 5/1 in a field of six. Don’t judge him on those. At Market Rasen on 15 August the horse that had half a length on him has since won off a mark 5lb higher. He also comes down in class from the grade he last won in. Two miles and a furlong on good ground suits him, he won four starts back and was second next time, and he is out again 11 days after his last run. Cieren Fallon rides for James Owen.
Her Southwell run on 3 September is the whole case for MIMIME (8:00 Southwell, 11/2). She finished a length and a half behind a horse that has since won off 5lb higher, and she runs off 45 today. She has run over this trip and surface before, and she comes back after a fortnight. Luke Morris rides for Michael Appleby. Twelve go over the five furlongs, and she was second last time out.
Stall 12, twice
Two of ours have drawn stall 12 at different tracks, and both horses need the draw.
Over five furlongs at Naas stall 12 is a good draw, and SUMMER SENT YOU (3:22 Naas, 7/2) has it. After two poor runs she was third last time, she turns out again 13 days later, and she has run on yielding ground before. Mark of 60, fourteen runners, K J Condon and W. J. Lee. The draw is the case and it is enough.
THUNDER GODDESS (5:08 Pontefract, 5/2) is our shortest price of the day and she has not won in five. She has been second on each of her last two starts, though, and in a 12-runner Class 6 over ten furlongs at Pontefract she comes out of stall 12, which suits this track and trip. She has run over this distance before and Andrew Balding has her out again seven days after her last run. Her times are below standard and that is the knock at 5/2. Jason Watson rides her off 59, and a horse that keeps finishing second with a good draw deserves to be this short.
Morbeh at Pontefract
There are only five runners for the mile and a half, and MORBEH (3:08 Pontefract, 7/2) comes here with 142113 next to his name. He won back to back two and three starts ago, was third last time, and has won three of his last six in all. He now runs off 85 in a Class 4. He has form over this trip and on good ground. Cieren Fallon, who also rides No More Bolero later on, goes better at Pontefract than he does in general. Roger Varian’s horse has been off 69 days and that is the one question.
Yesterday’s four headline picks produced no winner, with two placed.
The rest of Yarmouth, and Ayr late on
James Owen also sends ARIANE SKY (2:15 Yarmouth, 4/1) out for the first race. Good ground has suited her in the past. She won two starts back, then finished a close third, and Rossa Ryan rides from stall 1 over a mile. The horse that beat her half a length at Beverley on 13 August has won since. It was only a Class 6, which happens to be the grade she runs in today, and that is all it is worth.
SOLDIER OF THE SEA (3:15 Yarmouth, 4/1) has only three runs in his form figures, a win, a second and a fourth. He drops in class, and good ground suits him on what he has done. Horses he finished close to in his recent runs have gone on to win since, so the form around him has worked out. Tom Marquand rides for William Knight off 86, eight run over six furlongs, and he is back 13 days on.
At Yarmouth on 28 July, NOBLE GUEST (4:45 Yarmouth, 6/1) was beaten a length and three quarters by a horse that has since won a Class 6, and today is a Class 6 back at the same track. That is the reason, and it is a modest one. His times are going the wrong way. Oisin Murphy rides for George Margarson off 62 in a field of 13, over a trip and ground he has run on before.
Up at Ayr, ICE CUBE (4:30 Ayr, 4/1) goes for Richard Spencer and Saffie Osborne off 62 over seven furlongs on good to soft. He won two starts back and was fourth last time. At Epsom on 16 July he finished a length and a half ahead of a horse that has gone on to win a Class 6, the same grade he runs in today. His times are below par, so he needs to get back to the level of that win. He has run over this trip and on this ground before, and from stall 10 in a field of fourteen that experience will count.