On 6 August at Sandown, EDWIN HUBBLE (4:40 Sandown, 11/4) finished a head in front of a horse that has since won a Class 3. Today he runs in a Class 4. A head is next to nothing, but it went his way, and the horse on the wrong end of it has gone on to win a grade above this one.
The rest of his profile backs that up. He won two starts ago and was third last time. He has gone well over this course and distance before, so the track holds no fears. His figures have climbed sharply from a fairly ordinary base, so he is still going the right way and the handicapper may not have caught up with him yet. He is the top-rated runner in a field of nine, and his best recent form has already been boosted from a grade higher. Oisin Murphy rides from stall one. At 11/4 we are happy to take the price.
HINT OF HUMOUR (1:45 Sandown, 4/1) was also at Sandown in late August, and that run has worked out too. She was beaten a length and a half there on 28 August by a horse that has since won a Class 4. Today’s race is a Class 5.
Her record needs reading honestly. She has been third in each of her last two and has not won in six, and that is exactly why she is 4/1 in an eleven-runner sprint and not shorter. Stall five is a good draw over this five furlongs, and she comes back 19 days after her last run. This one is about the price more than a strong opinion, and the price is fair.
Beverley’s 2:08 is a ten-runner Class 5 over just short of a mile and a quarter, and GREAT BLASKET (2:08 Beverley, 13/2) is the one we want at the price. He has been third on each of his last two starts. His figures started from a modest level but have been rising sharply, and a horse still climbing that quickly can be ahead of his mark.
The connections matter here. Beverley is one of James Owen’s better tracks compared with the rest of his record, and Jason Hart also rides it better than he rides in general. The horse has run over the trip and on this ground before. The one query is the weight he has to carry from stall nine. At 13/2 that is already in the price.
Yesterday, Return of The Gods won at 4/1, and Apex Star (3/1) and Chale Chalo (4/1) both placed.
WILLOW WOOD (4:45 Yarmouth, 6/1) won three starts ago, then finished fifth, then third, and has been off for 40 days since. Look only at the results and you would call her form patchy. Look at who she has been running against and it gets a lot better.
At Doncaster on 18 July she finished a length and three quarters behind a horse that has since won a Class 2 off a mark 8lb higher than the day they met. That is a proper piece of form to bring into a Class 4 at Yarmouth. Another horse from one of her recent races has also won since, so the form isn’t resting on one result. She has run over this trip and on this ground before, the going is good to soft and her record says she handles it, and stall six is a good place to start from.
One thing to know. Her recent times have been below par, with nothing yet to show she is getting quicker. The case for her rests on the company she has kept, and at 6/1 we are happy with that.
The Sandown race goes off at 4:40 and the Yarmouth race at 4:45, so Edwin Hubble and Willow Wood run within five minutes of each other. Both are backed on form that other horses have since boosted.