At Salisbury on 23 May, ARCHER’S GRACE (2:17 Yarmouth, 7/2) finished 1.7 lengths behind a horse that has spent the summer making her case for her. That horse has since won off a mark 9lb higher than the one it carried at Salisbury. The handicapper put it up and it won anyway, and a beaten horse can’t get a better endorsement than that. Another runner from her recent races has also won since, so the argument doesn’t hang on one result. Her own form holds up without that help, a win two starts back and two seconds among her recent runs. James Fanshawe brings her back over seven furlongs on good to soft with Daniel Muscutt riding off 72, and stall 5 is a good draw for this track and trip. The 115 days off is the question. At 7/2 the price allows for it.
Two hours later on the same card, HAMLET’S NIGHT (4:17 Yarmouth, 2/1) comes back from even longer, 129 days. The run that matters came at Musselburgh in April. He finished half a length in front of a horse that has since won a class 3, a grade above today’s race, and that horse is now 8lb higher in the handicap. A second rival from his recent starts has won as well. He won two runs back and was third last time. Today he meets only six rivals over a mile and a quarter on the same easy ground, and he has the same stall 5 that suits Archer’s Grace earlier in the afternoon. Luke Morris rides for James Owen off 80.
Four months off is a lot to carry at 2/1. The Musselburgh form carries it.
Yesterday two of our four headline picks won, at 4/1 and 13/8.
Redcar
The shortest price on our list is SUPPLICATE (3:53 Redcar, 6/5), and nobody needs telling why. She has won four of her last five and the last three in a row. Those wins are already in the price. What isn’t in it is the way her times have moved. They have climbed sharply from a modest starting point, which is how a handicapper looks when she still has more to give, not when she has run up to her limit. She is not quick yet, but she is getting quicker, and that counts for more than the winning run.
Roger Varian’s runner meets six rivals over a mile and a quarter she has handled before. Jack Mitchell rides from stall 3 off 87, and she has had 33 days since her last run.
Leave Supplicate aside and the Redcar picks all have a knock you can see in the form figures, with a better reason sitting underneath it.
RETURN OF THE GODS (3:23 Redcar, 4/1) won three starts back, was fourth next time and then second on his latest run, 32 days ago. There are fifteen in this six furlong class 4 and he runs off 79. The York run on 25 July is why he is on the list. He finished a length and a half in front of a horse that has won a class 4 since, the same grade as today, and that horse has gone up 11lb from the day they met. Oisin Orr rides for Edward Bethell from stall 6. His recent times are below what this will take and nothing in them says that is about to change, so this is a bet on the York form rather than the clock.
Down in class and over five furlongs, DRAGON SPIN (4:23 Redcar, 11/2) meets six rivals on ground her record says she handles. Her last two runs, unplaced and then fifth, are the obvious knock. Before those she won twice in four starts. At York on 24 July she finished a length in front of a horse that has won a class 4 since, a grade above where she runs today. And her times have risen sharply from a low base. Clifford Lee rides for Steph Hollinshead from stall 3 off 66, 24 days after her last run.
Stall 13 is where you want to be over this mile at Redcar, and JUST TYPICAL (2:53 Redcar, 11/2) has it in a field of thirteen. He hasn’t won in six and his best recent effort was a third, but the races he has been running in have worked out. At Newmarket’s July course on 6 August he was a length and a half behind one that has won since, and another rival from his recent starts has also gone in. Ian Williams runs him again fifteen days on, with Jason Hart riding off 60. He needs to run faster than he has lately, and the draw gives him the help to do it.
Uttoxeter
A nose. PHANTOM GOLD (3:30 Uttoxeter, 9/4) finished that far behind a horse at Worcester on 1 July, and that horse has won since. So has Phantom Gold. He won on his latest start, and his recent efforts are right up with the best of his career. Tom Ellis saddles him in a twelve-runner class 4 over just short of two and a half miles, and Uttoxeter is one of the trainer’s stronger tracks. He carries 160 lb off a mark of 102 with Jack Andrews riding. The 61 days since his last run is a fair question. A horse running as well as he ever has is the answer we would pick.
Wolverhampton
APEX STAR (4:28 Wolverhampton, 3/1) goes two hours before the rest of our picks there. He has been third on each of his last two starts and second four runs back, and he is still waiting for a win off 55. Stall 4 suits over this six furlongs in a field of twelve. The Lingfield run on 20 August, 1.7 lengths behind one that has won a class 6 since, is a modest pointer and no more. Marco Ghiani rides, and at 3/1 you are backing how reliable he has been.
From half past six the night belongs to Oisin Murphy. He rides four of our five evening picks.
Of those four, the one we like most is BALLYBUNION (7:30 Wolverhampton, 9/4), and in his own race it isn’t close. That is a judgement about the field more than his form figures, which read 2-0643 and would not make anyone sit up. He was third last time, second five runs back, and he handles this surface. Michael Bell sends out more winners here than his record elsewhere would lead you to expect. Ballybunion goes from stall 9 in a field of twelve with 136 lb, off 65.
CHALE CHALO (6:30 Wolverhampton, 4/1) is the thinnest case of the four, and it’s right to say so. He hasn’t won since finishing second five starts ago, and his recent times have been going the wrong way. What he has is Murphy, a field of only seven, and experience of this seven furlongs on this surface. Tom Dascombe’s horse runs off 73 from stall 1.
LITTLE JAYBEE (8:00 Wolverhampton, 5/2) is the one evening pick without Murphy on board. Second in each of her last two, placed in four of her last five, and still no win among her last six. Edward Greatrex has her drawn in 2, which suits over five furlongs here, and David Evans brings her back only five days after that latest second. Ten run, and she races off 58.
Michael Appleby has the other two, both ridden by Murphy. R P MCMURPHY (7:00 Wolverhampton, 11/4) has won round here before and was fourth here on 1 September, a length behind one that has won a class 6 since. That is a modest line and we wouldn’t lean on it. Stall 13 matters more, a good spot over this trip, and so does a recent record of third and fourth with a win among his last six. He carries 138 lb off 58, fourteen days after that last run, in a field of thirteen.
LE ROUGE CHINOIS (8:30 Wolverhampton, 2/1) closes the night, and he has been in the first three on each of his last three starts. Second, second, third, with the handicapper nudging his mark up as he goes, and a win six runs back. He has run over this trip and surface before, just short of a mile and six furlongs, and there are only nine in the race. Off 55 with 135 lb from stall 1, he is the shortest of Murphy’s four for good reason.
Archer’s Grace will have raced at Yarmouth more than six hours before Le Rouge Chinois leaves the stalls, and by then we will know whether the summer off cost her anything.