About — The Form Signal

The Form Signal publishes daily UK and Ireland flat racing picks generated by a 13-factor form model. The same model runs every morning, picks the horses, and every result is published — wins and losses.

How the model works

Every runner in every flat race is scored against a composite model that weighs the factors that actually move racing form. The horse with the highest composite score is the pick. The gap between that pick and the next best on the model determines our confidence:

★★★ STRONG — clear gap. The model has conviction.
★★ EDGE — narrower margin. A defensible call but not a banker.
TOSS-UP — too close to call. Never published.

What goes into the score

Without giving away the recipe, the model weighs signals across these themes:

Class — independent ratings, blended and adjusted for the conditions of the race
Form — recent results, but interpreted rather than counted
Conditions — going and trip suitability based on what each horse has actually proven
Course familiarity — track and distance records
Connections — current trainer and jockey form
The handicap angle — weight movement and where each horse sits in the handicap structure
Track and pace bias — known track effects, matched to each horse's running style
Market intent — for races where the data alone can't tell the full story

The exact weights, thresholds and proprietary adjustments are what make this work. Those stay private.

What we don't use

Tipster opinions or media commentary
Tout columns or jockey gossip
"Smart money" rumours
AI in the way the term is usually meant — the model is a transparent rules-based scoring system, not a black box

Schedule

Picks are published before 09:00 UK time each morning. Results post throughout the afternoon and evening. End-of-day P/L is settled by 22:30.

Honesty policy

Every pick is published before the racing happens. Every result is published whether the pick won or lost. There is no cherry-picking, no quietly deleted bad days, no hindsight edits. The track record on this site is the complete record.

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