Wolverhampton puts on three races tonight over seven furlongs and thirty six yards, and we are involved in every one of them. Same surface, same turn, same run to the line. Three completely different reasons for being there.
Three races over the same strip
SANDITON (5:45 Wolverhampton, 10/3) is the one going somewhere. His times have been sharpening from a modest base, and that combination is what a sprinter looks like when the handicapper has him marked for the horse he was rather than the one he is turning into. He has gone well over this course and distance before, so neither the track nor the trip is a new ask tonight. The standard surface is in his favour on his record. Rivals he was finishing close to in his recent races have since won, which tells you those races were worth contesting. He returns after 49 days and he has finished seventh twice in his last three, and that is exactly why he is 10/3 instead of half of it.
Half an hour later, POWDER MONKEY (6:15 Wolverhampton, 15/8) comes in off a win. Stall 12 reads like a burden and over this trip at this track it is the opposite, it is a help. Horses he was running close to before that win have gone on to score themselves. The one place we would not push the case is the clock, because his times are drifting rather than climbing. The win, the draw and a surface his record likes are enough.
KING CHERRY (5:10 Wolverhampton, 6/1) is the thin one and we will treat him as thin. He runs again three days after his last start, which is not something a yard does by accident. The horse that beat him two lengths at Lingfield in August has won since, and that was a class 6, so take it for what it is and no more.
The other Wolverhampton runner is over a mile and a half. BELLE AMIE (6:45 Wolverhampton, 6/4) is 6/4 on the back of three wins in her last six, the most recent of them sixteen days ago. She has gone well over course and distance and she knows the surface. Seven runners, a horse in form, and a price that reflects both.
Newbury
RIVER CARD (5:15 Newbury, 15/8) has a Listed winner in his back pages. At Ascot on 6 September he finished a head in front of a horse that has since gone out and won one, and two more rivals from his recent starts have won since as well. Today he drops in class from the grade he last won in. What the market is pricing is the fourth last time out, and a fourth is the sort of thing that gets a horse to 15/8 in a race where the form behind him says shorter. The clock is not part of our argument here, his recent times are ordinary. The results of the races he has been running in are not.
Good ground is what LAW COURT (5:50 Newbury, 6/1) wants on career record, and he has already run over today’s trip. On the ratings for this race he sets the standard. Ryan Moore takes the ride for Richard Hannon and the rival he finished a head in front of at Windsor on 13 August has since won a class 4. He was second two starts back. His times have been going the wrong way and we will not gloss it, but the ground moves towards him and so does the grade, because he drops in class.
The handicapper has NEXT OF KIN (2:57 Newbury, 9/2) near the foot of this field, which describes where she has been rather than where she is now. She won last time out. At Ayr on 10 August she finished a head clear of a rival that has since won a class 4, and that is a better line than anything her mark implies. Haggas, Fallon, stall four, and seven furlongs she has already tackled.
HELLO FRIEND (4:40 Newbury, 13/2) has been placed three times in her last four and still has not won. Winless is winless and 13/2 is the price of it. The reason we take the price is that horses she has been finishing alongside have won since, and she comes back from 34 days off to a trip and a going she has handled before.
Newton Abbot, four months on
The first thing anyone sees with SERVICE MINIMUM (4:22 Newton Abbot, 4/1) is that she has not run for 117 days, and that is the one thing capable of beating her. Everything underneath it points the other way. She won twice in her last five, back to back, and at Uttoxeter on 24 May she came home a length and a half clear of a rival that has since won a class 2. Her times have been climbing hard from a modest starting point, which carries more weight in a horse who has been off the track than it would in one running every three weeks. She drops in class from the grade of her last win and she has had this trip and these conditions before. Harry Skelton rides for Dan Skelton in a six runner race, which means no traffic to worry about and nowhere to hide either.
Yesterday our five headline picks returned a winner in Ariane Sky at 4/1, with Morbeh at 7/2 and Mimime at 11/2 placed.
Last word from Dundalk
THALORIA (6:30 Dundalk, 7/1) goes in a seventeen runner sprint, and a field that size settles a fair amount before the stalls even open. Stall four is a good place to be over this trip at Dundalk. This is one of the yard’s stronger tracks as well, noticeably better than their record reads in general, and the standard surface suits him on what he has done before. The form figures say 102600 and the 112 day absence sits on top of them, so nobody is making him favourite tonight. At 7/1, in a race where the draw does real work, that is the whole appeal.
The 5:15 at Newbury is the one we want to see most, and it runs well before Dundalk gets going.