Two races at Goodwood, run a day apart at the end of July, have each thrown up a subsequent winner. Our two Doncaster picks were in front of those winners on the day, and neither has been given much credit for it in the prices.
Doncaster
BOURBON BLUES (2:25 Doncaster, 9/2) is a horse the market holds something against, and it is a fair thing to hold. He has not won in six starts. Look at what he has been doing instead. Second two runs back, third last time, and at Goodwood on 30 July he finished a nose in front of a horse that has since gone and won a class 2. That is the grade he is in today, off a mark of 101, with Ryan Moore booked by Brian Meehan. He has run over this trip and on this ground before and comes here 19 days after his last start. A horse who keeps running to a class 2 standard without getting his head in front is the kind a price forgets about, and 9/2 in a field of 11 is where that forgetting shows.
DEVIL’S PEAK (5:20 Doncaster, 9/4) ran the day after him at Goodwood, on 31 July, and finished three quarters of a length in front of a horse that has since won a class 3. He drops in grade himself this evening. John and Thady Gosden run him off 86, William Buick rides, and the yard has been winning at 37 per cent over the past fortnight. He won three starts back. He was sixth last time, which is the whole reason he is not shorter, and stall 4 is where you want to be over this trip at Doncaster. Nine runners. The Goodwood form says he is better than his last run and the price has not caught up.
Epsom
Four at Epsom, and two of them come from the same yard.
William Haggas sends CARAWAY (4:17 Epsom, 11/4) and WILD DAHLIA (4:52 Epsom, 9/2) out in consecutive races, Cieren Fallon rides both, and both run below the grade they last won in. That is the common thread. The cases are different.
Caraway is the improver. His times have risen sharply from a low starting point, which is the pattern of a horse the assessor has not caught up with yet, and off 62 in a class 6 he gets his chance to prove it. Two seconds in his last two runs, and horses he finished close to have since won, so those placings are worth more than they look on paper. Fifteen runners over a mile and a half at Epsom is a test of anything, but stall 17 is a good place to be starting from here.
Wild Dahlia has the same class drop and a helpful draw of her own in stall 6, but the thing to hold onto is Redcar on 29 July. She was a head in front of a horse that has since won. Third two starts back and second three starts back show she belongs at this level, and the sixth last time is what has her at 9/2 rather than shorter. Over a mile and a furlong on ground she has run on before, that is a price we take.
5/1 about a last-time-out winner in a class 5 is the price of a horse the market thinks has found his level. BEACH POINT (3:07 Epsom, 5/1) has not found it yet. He is not a quick horse. What he is is a horse whose clock has moved a long way in a short time, from a modest starting point, and the win came off the back of that. Off a mark of 74 that is exactly what you want to be backing, and the two fourths before the win were the build-up rather than the ceiling. Hector Crouch rides from stall 8 over a trip and on ground he has handled before.
CHARMAINE (3:42 Epsom, 2/1) gets a six-runner race over a mile and a half on ground she handles. Her win last time was at Chester on 2 August, beating by a length and a half a horse that has since won a class 4, and class 4 is where she is today. James Fanshawe puts up the 7lb claimer Arron D’Arcy and she runs off 86 after 39 days away. She is not a standout on the clock. Her times have gone the wrong way if anything. What she is is a horse with the right ground and a win that has been backed up since, at 2/1 in a small field, and that is enough.
Worcester
CREBILLY (2:10 Worcester, 7/2) runs in a five-horse class 2 over two and a half miles, and the clock says he belongs at this level. That is not something you can say about many horses at this price in a class 2. Jonjo and A.J. O’Neill run him off 129 with Harry Cobden up. He won three starts back, was second last time, and returns after 21 days with the trip and the ground already on his record. When there are only four to beat and the times already stand up, 7/2 is a price worth having.
BERRY EDGE (4:30 Worcester, 5/4) has been off for 177 days, and that is the entire question. What he did before the break answers most of it. Wetherby on 17 March was his last run, where he was third and finished a length and a half in front of a horse that has since won. He had won the time before that. Dan and Harry Skelton, class 5, off 85. The absence keeps us from calling him a certainty, and nothing else does.
Laytown
Racing on the beach, one over six furlongs and one over seven, and we have stall 2 in both.
INITIAL BLUE (5:49 Laytown, 9/2) has the draw we want over six on the sand and he won last time out. Jack Davison trains, Mr H C Swan rides, and two wins and two thirds in his last six is the record of a horse in form. He has been off 70 days, which is worth one look and no more.
CLONMACASH (7:20 Laytown, 6/1) is Adrian McGuinness’s runner and he is here on the price. At Naas on 3 August he was beaten a length and three quarters by a horse that has since won and is now rated 7lb higher than it was that day. He won last time out himself. The ground is right, the draw is right, and 6/1 in a field of 13 is more than a last-time-out winner with that form behind him should be. He is not a banker. He is a fair price in a race where most of the field is not.
Lingfield tonight
Five for us on the all-weather this evening, and four of them run off marks in the 50s. Cheap horses, but not badly handicapped ones.
FEDERAL ENVOY (4:23 Lingfield, 5/2) won nine days ago and Charlie Clover has turned him straight back out, which trainers do when a horse has come out of a race well. Lingfield is one of Clover’s better tracks in any case, his record here comfortably beats his record in general. Stall 2 over seven furlongs here is a good spot. One win from his last six is the caveat, but the win was the latest of them and he has run over this trip and on this surface before.
FULFORD CROSS (4:58 Lingfield, 7/1) runs over the same trip half an hour later and is the least obvious of the five. Five runs without a win, off 50, and the form figures are a seventh followed by a row of fives. Two things. On 1 August here he was beaten two lengths by a horse that has since won and is now rated 7lb higher than it was that day. And David Simcock’s runners do better at Lingfield than they do elsewhere. That is the whole case, and at 7/1 the whole case does not need to be long.
PURE PASSION (6:05 Lingfield, 11/2) has won two of her last three, including last time, and has gone well over this course and distance before. Five furlongs, nine runners, Stuart Williams and Jack Doughty. Her times have not been getting quicker, so this is not an improver. It is a sprinter in form at a track she handles. Two wins in three starts and 11/2 do not usually sit together.
MAKE IT UP (6:35 Lingfield, 15/8) is winless in five, and 15/8 says the market does not care. Nor do we. Two thirds and a second in his last four have him running to roughly the right level without getting there, and the second last time was his best placing of that run. William Knight runs him off 50, Silvestre De Sousa rides, and stall 6 helps over a mile and a half here. At Wolverhampton on 2 June he finished three quarters of a length ahead of a horse that has since won, a small line but a line. A horse this consistent off this mark wins eventually, and everything about tonight says the moment is near.
THISONESFORYOU (7:05 Lingfield, 11/8) closes our night, and a form line of 5-9344 is not what an 11/8 chance usually carries. Southwell on 27 July is the reason we are on. He was beaten three quarters of a length there by a horse that has since won. Clive Cox drops him in class for this, Billy Loughnane rides from stall 9, and his third three starts back came on this surface. What we do not have is a horse running faster than before. His recent times are below what he has shown he can do. So this is about the form around him rather than his own numbers, and in a class 6 off 60 the form around him is good enough.
She’s On The Ball won at 7/1 for our headline picks yesterday, and Fox Avatar, Ladies Day and Mmmbop all placed.
Doncaster first. Bourbon Blues goes at 2:25 and Devil’s Peak at 5:20, and by the second of them we will know whether Goodwood in July was as good as it looks.