William Haggas is running ART LOVER (8:30 Kempton, 2/1) again just 12 days after his last start, for a yard that has been winning at 27 per cent over the past fortnight. That is the surface of it. Underneath is Chester on 11 July, where he was beaten a length, and the horse that beat him has since gone and won a class 3. That is the run that puts him in here at 2/1 and it stands up to any amount of looking. He drops into class 4 tonight, six go to post over six furlongs, and Tom Marquand rides from stall four. A seventh and an eighth sit between his one recent win and his second, and that is why he is not shorter. Against five rivals in this grade we will take it on.
Afternoon
Five go to post for Sedgefield’s 4:00, a class 3 over two miles three and a half furlongs, and LADIES DAY (4:00 Sedgefield, 3/1) brings the best recent record into it. Two wins back to back, then a fourth. What we like most is that the clock has her running above her own normal level in those recent starts, and in this grade that carries more than the finishing positions do. The Uttoxeter run in June, where she finished a length and three quarters in front of one who has won a class 4 since and is now 5lb higher in the handicap, is modest support and no more than that. This trip and these conditions are nothing new to her. Fifty-three days off is the one question, and Jack Andrews will know early whether it matters.
On finishing positions alone FOX AVATAR (2:51 Redcar, 6/1) is a horse who won four starts ago, lost his way for two runs and then finished third 28 days ago. That is not the horse we are backing. The one we are backing has been putting up quicker and quicker times from a low starting point, which is the shape a well-handicapped horse takes just before it wins again. He is not a fast horse yet. He is one going the right way off 83, over a trip and ground he has handled before, with P J McDonald on from stall one for Roger Varian. Class 4, 11 runners, and 6/1 is a fair bit bigger than that picture deserves.
A win last time and a second before that. STATE OF GOLD (2:42 Carlisle, 11/4) arrives at Carlisle in the best form of her recent starts, and the seventh that came before those two runs is the only thing holding the price up. Go back to Ripon on 18 June. She came home two lengths in front of a horse who has since won in class 4, so the form around her was moving in the right direction before she won herself. Stall six is where you want to be over this trip at Carlisle. Craig Lidster gives her 27 days between runs, which is a normal gap, and Clifford Lee rides in a field of ten.
Kempton, the other two
MMMBOP (5:00 Kempton, 13/2) has not run for 105 days and that is the whole question with her. Everything else is in place. She was third two runs back, she has course and distance form, and at Kempton on 30 April she finished a length and a half ahead of a rival who has since won a class 4. That last piece is what makes 13/2 look big in a class 6 with 14 runners. Billy Loughnane rides from stall seven for Daniel and Claire Kubler. If she is fit she is in the right race.
UZINCSO (8:00 Kempton, 9/2) is a plainer case and gets a plainer paragraph. Five runs without a win, a third two back to show he still tries, and Kempton is one of John Butler’s stronger tracks by a clear distance. Stall five is a good draw for this trip here. He was beaten under a length and a half at Lingfield last month by a horse that has won since, though only in this grade, so that is a small plus and no more. David Egan rides.
Cork
SHE’S ON THE BALL (6:15 Cork, 6/1) runs off a mark of 42, has not won in six, and faces 24 rivals over seven furlongs. The market has priced that and stopped looking. What it has missed is Sligo on 5 August, where she was beaten a length by a horse who has won since, and another one out of her recent races has gone in as well. She was third last time, this is her trip and her ground, and 35 days off is nothing. She is not fast. The form around her is better than she is, and off 42 in a race like this that is enough to have her onside for Laura Hourigan and Wayne Lordan.
Arctic Tsar won at 11/2 for us yesterday, and Aura Of Melania and Roadlesstravelled both placed.
Twenty-five go to post at Cork at 6:15, and the one we want is the one nobody else in the ring is talking about.