Ian Williams’ yard is winning at 4 per cent and CHILLY BREEZE (2:47 Chester, 7/1) has not won in his last five starts. Both facts are in the price. Neither is the reason we are backing him.
The reason is what his speed figures have done. They started from a modest base and have climbed sharply through his last two runs, both of them seconds. That does not make him a fast horse. It makes him a horse the handicapper is still assessing on what he used to be, off a mark of 66, while the clock is saying something newer. Then there is stall 3. Over a mile and a quarter at Chester the low draw is worth having and he has it. He has run this trip before and comes back after a 39-day break. The yard is the one real worry, and at 7/1 that worry is being charged for more heavily than the improvement is being paid for. That is the bet.
Three defeats that have been franked since
TWO COMMANDERS (3:53 Chester, 6/4) is short for a 13-runner handicap and the price is right. Go back to Catterick on 15 July, where he was beaten a length and a half. The horse that beat him has since won a class 3 off a mark 6lb higher than it had that day. That is the kind of follow-up that turns a defeat into a reference point rather than a blot. Another horse from his recent races has won since as well, so the form around him has been holding up in general and not just through one result. He then went and won last time out anyway. Stall 2 over seven furlongs at Chester is where you want to be drawn, and good to soft is ground his record says he handles. Thirteen runners on this track is never a formality. The case is as complete as we get at the price.
DISTANT SHORE (4:57 Sandown, 2/1) is a different sort of pick. She has been second twice in her last five and has not won in that time, which is why she is 2/1 and not shorter. Half a length at Nottingham on 21 July is the run that matters. The horse that beat her has since won a class 3 off a mark 6lb higher than that day and has been put up again since, and a second horse out of her recent races has won too. She is running as well as she ever has. She is drawn in stall 3, and Sandown is one of Roger Varian’s stronger tracks by some way when set against his record elsewhere. None of that makes her a certainty. It makes 2/1 about the right price for a filly with the form to win this and a recent habit of finishing second.
MISS GUINEVERE (6:28 Salisbury, 3/1) is the weakest of the three on the clock. Her recent speed figures are below par and we have nothing to say they are turning. So why is she here. Because of Yarmouth on 18 June, where she was beaten a length and a half by a horse that has since won a class 3, and because her recent form is right up at her career best even if the times do not agree. She has run over this trip and on this ground before and comes here after 21 days. Four starts without a win is the honest reading of 9543. At 3/1 the Yarmouth form is what we are trusting.
Two sprint handicaps, one short and one not
Two starts back BOLD SHOUT (4:16 Salisbury, 5/4) won in a higher grade than today’s class 5, so this is a drop from where he last won. He has gone well over this course and distance before, he was placed last time, and he comes back after just 16 days. Stall 5 is a favourable draw over six furlongs here. Soft to heavy is the one question, because what we hold on him is about the track and the trip rather than the ground. There is not much of a price and there is not much to pick at either.
Four places from six starts and no win is the record HINT OF HUMOUR (2:36 Sandown, 6/1) brings to the first race on our list, and it is why she is 6/1. Her times are already sound and have kept getting better, she has run over this trip and on this ground before, and over five furlongs at Sandown stall 3 is the side of the draw you want. Two things in her favour and a price that ignores both. That is enough for a bet, not for a strong opinion.
Yesterday’s headline list had Crebilly winning at 9/2, with Berry Edge and Wild Dahlia both placed.
The first of ours goes at 2:36 and the one we most want to see run is eleven minutes later at Chester. If Chilly Breeze goes close from stall 3, the 4 per cent will have mattered a lot less than his price says it does.