Four meetings, fifteen picks, and a day that splits neatly in two. York does the heavy lifting in the afternoon, then Carlisle, Worcester and Kempton take over once the big crowd has gone home. We have got a lot on today and most of the serious money is going down before four o’clock.
York first, because that is where the day is decided. All four of our picks there carry our biggest stakes, and they cover the full range of the market. Ombudsman is the short one and rightly so. The others are all double figures or thereabouts, which tells you we think this is a card where the obvious answers are not always the right ones. Trefor at 21s is the one we are most curious about. Nobody is talking about him and that suits us fine.
Carlisle in the evening is where the depth is. Five picks across the card and three of them look like horses moving in the right direction rather than horses hoping for a soft race. Commander Of Life won last time out, and the horse he beat by a length and a half at Newbury in July has since gone and won a class 4. The figures back up what the eye says. He is improving.
Keep An Eye On It is the other one we keep coming back to. He was beaten three quarters of a length at Musselburgh in April by a horse that has since won a class 2 off a mark seven pounds higher, which is form that reads better every month. He won nine days ago too, so he arrives here fresh off a good day rather than looking for one.
Yellow Diamonds we like on a slightly different basis. She was second last time and Ryan Sexton has a better record round Carlisle than his overall numbers suggest. The raw figures are ordinary, so this is a price call more than a conviction call. Take it at the odds or leave it, we would not chase it.
Worcester gives us two and Kempton four, and they are all in the middle of the market where we tend to do our best work. Obsidian Verse and Muskerry Rock are the shortest of that group, and Breakdancer and Starlight Time both carry decent stakes at bigger prices.
Yesterday was a good one. Five picks, two winners in Von Krolock at 6/1 and Perfect Ruler at 7/2, plus a place from Acclaimed Freedom. Days like that pay for the quiet ones.
Fifteen bets is a lot in one afternoon and evening, so stake sensibly and treat York as the main event. The rest of the week has a similar shape to it.