A head. That was the gap at Lingfield in January between MORROPHORE (4:10 York, 7/2) and the horse behind her, and that horse has since gone and won a Class 1 and now sits 7lb higher than the day they met. She has not been seen since. Three wins from her last five, two of them back to back, and she knows this ground. The obvious query is the one everybody can see on the racecard, 215 days away from a track, and she does have to come back ready to run to the level she left off at. But the form she left behind has been advertising itself all summer while she has been off, and the market is treating her like a horse with a question mark rather than a horse with that piece of form in the book.
That is the one we want to talk about first. The rest of York gives us two more in the big-field handicaps.
York
WELEYFF (4:45 York, 5/1) goes up in grade with two wins behind him and nineteen to beat. Stall 16 is where you want to be over seven here, and that matters more than usual in a field this size. He did finish a length and a half in front of one at Ayr in July that has since won a Class 3, which is corroboration rather than a headline. Yard is not one that fires at this track, and we are backing the horse rather than the record.
Then ALBAYDAA (5:20 York, 13/2). Twenty runners, and she comes off a fifth. The reason we are on at that price is that her times have been sitting above the level she usually runs to, and the fifth last time reads worse than the horse currently is. She won two starts back, she has had this trip and this ground before, and 57 days off a mid-summer campaign is nothing to be frightened of.
Newmarket
SOCIETY GIRL (4:51 Newmarket, 7/2) was beaten a nose at Epsom on 9 July and the winner of that has since taken a Class 4. Five runners, so there is nowhere to hide, and she arrives having won last time out. She has gone well over course and distance, this ground suits her on career record, and there is no part of today’s conditions she has not already handled. The one thing we will not claim is that her times are climbing, because they are not. She does not need them to. Everything else lines up and the last-day win means she comes here in the sort of nick where the ground and the track do the rest.
PALADIN (4:20 Newmarket, 7/1) was a length and a half behind one at Ascot on 10 July that has since won a Class 4 and is now rated 6lb higher than the day they met. That is a decent piece of form to have in the book at this price. Stall four is a help over seven here. His profile is scratchy either side of that Ascot run, ninth last time being the obvious blot, and if you want a reason to leave him alone that is the reason. We think 7/1 has priced the bad runs and forgotten the good one.
BE PATIENT (3:45 Newmarket, 5/2) is the shortest of our three at the July course and has the plainest case. Two wins then a second, the yard is going along at 38 percent, five runners and a mile and a half on good to firm he can handle. The times are not flattering him at this level. He is here on the strength of what he has actually done in his last three races.
Lingfield
QUEEN SANA (5:01 Lingfield, 9/2) has been second four times in her last six, which is exactly the sort of record that makes punters walk past a horse. Look at what one of those seconds was worth. At Ffos Las on 14 July she was beaten a length, and the one that did it has since won a Class 4. She drops in grade for this, seven runners, five and a half furlongs at Lingfield off a mark of 69. The market has priced the losing run. It has not priced the standard of what has been beating her.
Earlier on the same card, POWDER MONKEY (3:55 Lingfield, 11/2) has not won in four and there is 89 days to explain away too. What makes him interesting is that the horses he has been finishing alongside in those mid-division efforts have gone on to win races, which puts his recent form in a different light to the one the bare finishing positions suggest. Stall two is the right end of the draw over seven furlongs here. He has had this trip and this surface. His times are drifting the wrong way, so the case rests on the company he has been keeping rather than the clock.
Stratford in the evening
SIR TIVO (6:36 Stratford, 5/1) is the one horse today whose clock we genuinely like. He has been getting quicker run by run and the times are not modest ones being flattered by soft races, they hold up at this level, which is the bit that matters in a Class 2. He won 32 days ago. He has gone well over course and distance and he has had this going. Sean Bowen does better round here than he does generally. Six runners, two miles three at Stratford on good to firm, and 156lb is a proper ask off a mark of 124. We are taking it on because the times say he has come forward again since that win.
Three runners in the 7:06 and SAMUEL SPADE (7:06 Stratford, 5/2) has the best line of the three. Beaten two lengths at Uttoxeter on 28 June by one that has since won a Class 3 and is now rated 6lb higher than when they met. Stratford is one of Ben Pauling’s stronger tracks. He won three starts back and has had this trip.
BERRY EDGE (8:06 Stratford, 9/4) is going the right way and the way the times have moved is the whole reason we are on. They have taken a big jump from a modest starting point, and that is the shape of a horse whose mark has not caught up with him yet. Not a quick horse. A quickly improving one, which at 9/4 in a Class 5 handicap is what you want. He beat one home by a length and a half at Wetherby back in March that has won since, and Stratford is one of Dan Skelton’s stronger tracks. The 156 days off is the ask, and in an eleven-runner field over two miles it is a real one, but a horse who won two starts back and has had this trip before is entitled to be ready enough.
Newcastle
CASINO STAR (7:54 Newcastle, 7/2) has been placed in three of his last four and those races have kept throwing up winners since, so there is more substance to that run of placings than a bare 2623 looks. Six runners, five furlongs, back over a trip he knows, and he was out only thirteen days ago. He has not won recently. Everything else about him says he is close.
Yesterday four of our headline picks ran, none won, one placed. Ombudsman was second at 11/10 and Stiletto placed at 10/1.
Morrophore is the race to watch. If she comes back the same mare who held that one by a head at Lingfield in January, 7/2 will look a long way wrong by twenty past four.