SOUND AND VISION (5:25 Bath, 4/1) finished eighth last time out. It is the least important thing about her.
Go back to Goodwood on 28 August. She finished half a length in front of a horse that has since won a class 4 off a mark 10lb higher than the one it raced off that day, and it has been put up again since. So a horse she beat that day has gone on and proved itself well above the level she meets today. Two starts back she won. Before that she was second, and before that third, so the eighth came straight after a run that was heading the right way. It is one poor run and nothing more. Today she drops into class 5, she has run over this trip and on this ground before, and Tom Marquand rides for Ed Walker. Fifteen days is plenty of time to get over a bad day. The Goodwood run is the true measure of her and it is good enough to win this, so we are happy to take 4/1.
Earlier on the same card LITTLE JAYBEE (2:40 Bath, 7/1) lines up in a 14-runner sprint over five furlongs, and she has not been out of the first two in three runs. She won a nine-runner race last time, and before that she was second of eight and second of six. In none of those three was she beaten more than two lengths. In a field this size the horse you want is the one that has been in the shake-up every time lately, and that is her. Edward Greatrex has ridden 3 winners from 17 rides at Bath in the last 12 months, which is 18% against 12% across all courses. Seven to one undervalues how often she has been right there.
Yesterday one of our headline picks won at 13/8 and another placed at 11/8.
Heavy ground at Ayr
Both Ayr picks run over seven furlongs and 50 yards on heavy ground, and the two yards behind them are in very different form.
John and Sean Quinn are 4 from 18 at Ayr in the last 12 months. That is 22%, against 11% everywhere, so they do twice as well here as they do in general. They send SAXON PRINCE (2:55 Ayr, 11/2) into a class 6 off a mark of 58. On paper his form reads 526096 and he has not won in six, which explains the price. The run to focus on came here on 17 September, when he was beaten a length and a half by a horse that has since won. One more horse from his recent races has won since as well, so the form around him has held up better than his finishing positions suggest. He has run over this trip before, and the second five starts back shows the ability is there. Jason Hart rides from stall one.
STANAGE (4:05 Ayr, 11/2) comes with a warning, but it is about the yard and not the horse. Michael and David Easterby are one from 27, and that is cold however you look at it.
The horse himself is going the other way. He was third nine days ago, he has run over this trip and on this ground before, and today he drops in class. Back in July at Doncaster he was beaten half a length by a horse that has since won. He turns out again quickly, which is what you do with a horse who is in form. Billy Garritty rides from stall two. We will take 11/2 on a horse whose own recent form needs no excuses, whatever the yard is doing around him.
A mile at Southwell, twice
Same trip, half an hour apart, and two very different reasons to be involved.
ROGUE CITATION (7:00 Southwell, 4/1) has run here twice and won once. That is her entire career at the track, and a horse who has already shown she handles this surface starts with something plenty of nine-runner fields can’t offer. Her recent form backs it up. She won three starts back, finished fourth, and was third last time. Horses she finished close to in those races have gone on to win since. Daniel Tudhope rides for Edward Bethell after 27 days off. Stall eight is the one question.
ERNIE’S VALENTINE (7:30 Southwell, 9/2) is the reverse. He is 0 from 4 at Southwell in the last 18 months, and nobody should be backing him for the track.
What we are backing is his mark. He last won off 68 at Wolverhampton and runs off 63 tonight, 5lb lower. He has gone eleven races without winning, which is how a mark comes down that far. He was second last time out after 21 days off, the best of his last six runs, and Alexandra Egan’s 5lb claim takes more off his back on top of the drop. There are 14 runners and he comes out of stall 12, so he needs things to go his way. A horse who has just run his best race in a while, off a mark well below the one he last won off, is our last bet of the night at 9/2.