DEL CORSO (4:29 Nottingham, 9/2) has run over a mile and a quarter at Nottingham twice and won both times. He goes back there this afternoon on good ground, and on its own that would put him on most shortlists.
The rest of his case is just as good. His last three runs read second, third and a win, so he comes here in form. The second was at Sandown on 11 September, and a horse two lengths behind him that day has won a class 4 since, which is the grade he runs in today. That tells us the Sandown run was worth something. It is a twelve-runner handicap, so nothing is handed to him, but 9/2 about a horse who has never been beaten over this course and distance is a price we want.
The rest of Nottingham
The 2:59, the 3:59 and the 4:29 are all run over the same trip, and we have a horse in each. The other two are maidens, and they are on our list for different reasons.
MEDWAY QUEEN (3:59 Nottingham, 6/1) has been second in each of her last two races and has never won. You can read that as a horse who keeps finding one too good, or as one who keeps running her race. We read it the second way. She has run over this trip and on this going, she has had 21 days since her last run, and she gets Jason Hart. He has ridden 6 winners from 20 rides at Nottingham in the last 12 months, 30%, against 14% across all his rides. Thirteen go to post, and 6/1 about a runner who keeps finishing second is a price that does not need much to go right.
CROWN RANGER (2:59 Nottingham, 5/2) gets less space because his case is shorter. Third, third and fourth in his last three, and he has run over the trip and on the ground. Silvestre De Sousa rides for Marco Botti. Only five go to post, and in a field that small a horse who keeps finishing in the first four is fair value at 5/2. That’s all there is to it.
Worcester
The 1:05 is a six-runner Class 3 over two miles seven, and the last time KING ROLY (1:05 Worcester, 13/8) ran over this course and distance, he won. That is his only run over it in the last 18 months, so the count is one from one and nothing more. It still matters, because two miles seven at Worcester is a specific test and he has passed it.
His recent form backs it up. He was ninth three runs back, won next time, then finished second last time out. He has been off 37 days since. The Bowens do well at this track. James Bowen is 7 from 24 at Worcester in the last 12 months, 29% against 16% overall, and trainer Mickey Bowen is 8 from 32 here, 25% against 12%. That is a strong record from both of them at one course.
The one real question is the handicapper. He runs off a mark 6lb higher than the one he last won off, and that is why he is 13/8 and not shorter. A horse who won over this course and distance and then finished second can handle a rise like that.
Two hundred days is a long time between runs, and IN THE AGE (1:35 Worcester, 7/2) has been away that long. That is the concern and we will say it once. The form he left behind holds up. He was fourth last time, second before that and a winner the run before. At Uttoxeter on 24 January a horse a length and a half behind him has since won a class 4, and today is a class 4. He has run over today’s trip and on today’s going, and Dan Skelton trains him with Harry Skelton riding. Six runners, 7/2, and the form he showed before the break is good enough to win this.
Sedgefield and Navan
WILLIAM YEATS (3:20 Sedgefield, 11/8) is the shortest price we are with today, and he is short for one reason. He has run at Sedgefield five times and won twice. Some horses just go better at a particular track, and he looks like one of them.
His form fits the price too. He won two starts back, finished second last time, and comes here 23 days on with experience of the ground. Seven runners. The thing he has to overcome is a mark 13lb higher than the one he last won off, which is a big rise. At most tracks that would put us off. At Sedgefield, with two wins from five runs here, we will trust him to cope with it, and 11/8 is where it lands.
SANTO PARVENUE (2:45 Navan, 11/2) is the one runner we have in Ireland, in a ten-runner sprint over five furlongs and 180 yards on yielding ground. He was third last time and won the run before, and he is back just nine days later. He has run over the trip and on the going before, and he is drawn in stall two. He is 12lb above the mark he last won off, and that is a fair question in a race like this. At 11/2 we are being paid to ask it.
Neither of yesterday’s two headline picks won.
The day is built around Nottingham at 4:29, where Del Corso goes back to a trip he has run over twice and won both times.