The last time LADY IN GOLD (2:45 Bellewstown, 4/1) ran, she won. That was 223 days ago. Her chance this afternoon comes down to which of those two facts you think matters more.
She did not win that race at the end of a long climb up the handicap. The run before it was an eighth, so the win was a jump in her form. She runs off 79 now in a seven-runner race on yielding to soft ground, just short of a mile, and she has run over the trip before. The case for her is that the handicapper has only seen her new level once, and she has not been out since to give him a reason to think again. The case against is the layoff. Seven months is a long time, and some horses need a run to come back to themselves. We are happy to take 4/1 and find out which kind she is.
Bellewstown
Joseph O’Brien and J M Sheridan, who team up on Lady In Gold, also go in the opener over exactly the same trip. GREEN SPARKLE (1:00 Bellewstown, 5/1) is a much harder horse to make a case for on her recent runs. She has been unplaced in her last three, the latest of them 44 days ago, and there is nothing in that form to point to. What she does have is a mark of 64, the inside stall in a field of seven, and a trainer and jockey who both do noticeably better at Bellewstown than they do elsewhere. In most races that would not be enough to bet on. At 5/1 in a seven-runner handicap, it is enough for us.
At 15/8, STEEL MAGNOLIA (3:20 Bellewstown, 15/8) is the shortest price we have today, and she gets there on consistency. Her last three runs read second, win, third. She has run over this five furlongs and on this ground before, and off a mark of 55 she keeps putting herself in the frame at a level she can cope with. One she beat at Navan on 5 September has won since. That is a small plus, not a big one. The worry is the clock. Her times have been going the wrong way even while the placings held up, and at 15/8 there is not much room for that. We would still rather be with a mare who has finished in the first three in each of her last three runs than try to find one to beat her.
SEARCOG (4:30 Bellewstown, 10/3) has drawn stall 12, and over a mile and a half here that is a favourable place to start. That is most of the case. She runs off 49 and keeps running respectably without winning. She finished fourth last time and was second five starts back, but she has not won in her last five and has been off for 43 days. Reese Holohan’s 5lb claim helps. This is a bet on the draw and the price in a twelve-runner handicap, and that is all we are claiming for her.
Ralph Beckett, six minutes apart
Beckett runs REVELANCE (3:43 Nottingham, 9/2) and REGIONAL ROCK (3:49 Salisbury, 5/1) at two different tracks six minutes apart, and the cases for them could hardly be more different.
Nottingham is one of Beckett’s better courses, and his record there is clearly stronger than his record overall. Revelance comes in with a win two starts back. The rest of her recent form is untidy, sixth last time and sixth or worse in the others, and her times are not improving, so we will not claim they are. What brings us in is what has happened since. Horses she finished close to have gone on to win, which makes her form better than her finishing positions suggest. James Doyle rides, she has had 31 days off, and she has run over this trip and on good ground before. Off 85 in an eleven-runner class 4, 9/2 is fair.
Regional Rock has a different problem. He has been consistent, but his last three runs have gone second, third, fourth, and his times have dropped off with them. That is the concern and it is a real one. Go back to Windsor on 27 July, though, and you find him three quarters of a length in front of a horse that has since won a class 3 and is now rated 7lb higher. Today is a class 4. He has been off 50 days, Hector Crouch rides, and in a fourteen-runner six furlongs on good to soft he is a better horse than his last run makes him look.
Yesterday our five headline picks returned a 4/1 winner and three placed.
Newcastle, from five until eight
L’EAGLE AID (5:00 Newcastle, 5/2) has finished third in four of his last six without winning, and he runs off 70. The run that matters most was a defeat. At Beverley on 29 August he was beaten a length and a half by a horse that has since won a class 4, and tonight’s race is a class 5. His times are improving sharply too. He is not yet a quick horse, but he is getting quicker from a modest starting point, which is exactly what you want from one who keeps finishing in the frame. He was third only seven days ago, has run over this mile and a half on this surface before, and is drawn in stall 1 in an eleven-runner field. He is the shortest of our five at Newcastle and he should be.
NOT MY TYPE (6:00 Newcastle, 9/2) won two in a row, then finished fifth twice. The question is which of those spells is the real her. She is back after seven days for William Haggas with Cieren Fallon riding, she has run over the five furlongs, and the field is only seven. We think the wins are the truer guide.
At 13/2, ANGEL LOVE (7:00 Newcastle, 13/2) is the biggest price on our list today. Her last run was a third at Wolverhampton on 31 July, and the one she beat by three quarters of a length that day has won a class 4 since. Her times have been climbing steeply from a low base, so off 76 she looks like a horse on the way up rather than one the handicapper has already caught up with. She has a win four starts back and has run over this six furlongs on this surface. The 62 days off is the one real question. Rowan Scott, who rides L’Eagle Aid two hours earlier, is on board again.
EGOTISTICAL (7:30 Newcastle, 11/2) drops below the grade of her last win. Her runs since have been respectable without quite getting there, second two starts back and fourth last time, and more than one horse she finished close to in those races has gone on to win. Stall 2 is a good draw over this seven furlongs. She has had 29 days off, Ross Coakley rides for Roger Varian, and in a ten-runner class 5 she looks overpriced at 11/2.
That leaves DC COGENT (8:00 Newcastle, 11/4) in the last race. He has not won in six starts, but the last two were a third and a second, and he has run over this trip and on this surface before. On 3 September here he finished a length and a quarter in front of one that has since won, but only at class 6, the same level as tonight, so we will not make too much of it. Paul Mulrennan rides for Bryan Smart, 16 days after his last run. At 11/4 this is a bet on the price rather than a strong opinion, and he has the widest stall of the ten, so he needs to cross the field to get involved over five furlongs.