The best line on MASABAN (3:42 Catterick, 3/1) comes from a race he lost. At Redcar on 8 August he was beaten under two lengths. The horse in front of him that day has since won a Class 3 off a mark 6lb higher than when they met. For a horse running in a Class 5 this afternoon, collateral form doesn’t come much better than that.
He has kept moving forward since. A second, then a third, then a win last time out. Now he comes back 18 days later over seven furlongs on good ground, which suits him on his record. Daniel Tudhope rides for Edward Bethell, and stall 3 is the right place to be over this trip at Catterick. The one gap in the case is the clock, because his recent times sit below the standard for this sort of race. We’ll side with the form book over the stopwatch at 3/1.
The rest of Catterick
Same course, same trip and same class, 33 minutes later, and VINCE LE PRINCE (4:15 Catterick, 10/3) is a completely different sort of bet. He hasn’t won in his last six. A second, an unplaced run, two thirds and two fourths make up that sequence. He’s here because of which way he’s heading. His times have been improving sharply from a low base, and off a mark of 63 that makes him a horse on the way up rather than one who has already arrived. He has gone well over course and distance before, stall 7 suits, and David Allan rides for Tim Easterby 13 days after his last start.
WARDLAW (5:25 Catterick, 5/4) is the shortest price we have all day.
Six runs, six finishes in the first three. His form figures read 223122, and the one win in that run came three starts back. Seven go in a Class 4 over a mile and a half on good ground, and he has run over this trip and on this going. Sir Mark Prescott’s runners do better here than at most of the tracks he sends to, and Luke Morris rides. He turns out again just a week after his last run, and the clock has him going the right way, from a modest starting point. At 5/4 there’s one obvious catch. One win in six means you’re backing a horse that keeps hitting the frame to finally go one better, and a price that short leaves no room for another second.
ZUFFOLO (5:55 Catterick, 10/3) is on the list for his price more than his profile. He won three starts back and has been third twice in his last six, but he was a disappointing eighth last time, 15 days ago. What he does have is a draw that suits in stall 4 over five furlongs, and Michael Dods is another trainer whose runners go better at Catterick than elsewhere. The horse that beat him a length at Musselburgh in August has won since, though only a Class 6. In an eight-runner Class 6 of his own, 10/3 is fair.
Bellewstown
Five furlongs on yielding to soft is a proper test for a sprinter, and NOUVEL ESPOIR (4:25 Bellewstown, 7/2) has been over this trip and on this ground before. Of all today’s sprinters, he’s the one we’re firmest about. He has been placed in three of his last four, second twice, most recently at Fairyhouse nine days ago, and the horse that beat him there has won since. Colin Keane rides for James Barcoe from stall 8 of nine. The concern is the clock. His recent times are below par and he hasn’t won in his last five, so the case rests on how often he’s been in the shake-up rather than on raw speed.
Musselburgh
SOVEREIGNS HIGH (3:23 Musselburgh, 11/2) has yet to win. His last five read 38386, with two thirds among them. Look at who he’s been finishing near, though, because several of those horses have gone on to win since. That makes his record look like a horse running into useful opponents rather than one short of ability. Ralph Beckett’s runner is back after 11 days, over a trip and ground he has tried before, with Rhys Clutterbuck riding from stall 8.
Eighteen minutes after Vince Le Prince goes off at Catterick, Tim Easterby has LAIRY MARY (4:33 Musselburgh, 4/1) running up the road. She’s out again only seven days after her last run, and her recent form, a second two starts back and a fourth last time, stands alongside the best she has ever run. That best isn’t quick by the clock, and her only win in the last six came six runs ago. In a seven-runner Class 6 over five furlongs, from stall 2, she’s the one we want, with Duran Fentiman riding.
Yesterday none of our five headline picks won, and three of them placed.
Kempton tonight
Oisin Murphy rides both of our Kempton runners, and they’re very different bets.
MR FUSTIC (6:30 Kempton, 5/1) is the thinner of the two. He hasn’t finished in the first three in his last four and his times are below par, so the whole case rests on a mark of 56 and one piece of form. At Southwell on 31 August he finished a length and three quarters in front of a horse that has won since. That was a Class 6 win, the same grade he runs in tonight. Twelve go over a mile, and he’s back after 15 days with a win and a third among his last six.
CAPE FEAR (8:00 Kempton, 5/2) is a different proposition entirely. Two wins and three places from his last six, and the horses he has been finishing close to have gone on to win races. He was fifth last time after winning the start before, and he drops in grade for this Class 4 over a mile and three furlongs. Andrew Balding trains him and stall 4 suits over this trip. His recent times are below par, and 5/2 isn’t generous, but the company he has been keeping is the reason he’s our last bet of the day.
By the time he goes off at eight, we’ll know whether the Redcar form Masaban takes to Catterick at 3:42 is as good as it looks.