The last time MUSKERRY ROCK (1:50 Newton Abbot, 7/2) ran, he pulled up. Go back one run and he won. Go back another and he was second. The P is the most recent thing on his record, so it is the first thing anyone sees. In a three-runner class 3 over three miles and a furlong on good ground, it is doing a lot to his price.
The run we care about is Market Rasen on 19 June. He was beaten a nose that day, and the horse that did it has since won off a mark 6lb higher than the one it raced off against him. A nose is nothing. If the winner could go up 6lb and win again, then a horse that ran it to a nose was running to a level this small field will struggle to reach. His best recent runs are right up with the best he has ever run, he has gone well over course and distance, and Sean Bowen rides for Mickey Bowen. The pull-up is the one question, and it is a real one. We are not letting one bad day undo everything that came before it, and at 7/2 you are being paid to take that view.
Yesterday we had four headline picks, with one winner at 3/1 and one placed at 15/2.
Soft ground at Hamilton
CITY CAPTAIN (4:04 Hamilton, 5/4) is the shortest price we have today, and he should be. He has won round Hamilton before, his record on soft ground is good, and stall 5 is a good place to be over this five furlongs. He won two starts back and was second a week ago, so there are no questions about his form. Harriet Bethell brings him back after seven days with Daniel Tudhope on. There is a small bonus in his run here on 21 August, when he finished a length in front of one that has since won a class 4. It isn’t much, but it points the right way.
Thirteen runners, a class 3 over a mile on soft, and EL MATADOR (3:29 Hamilton, 7/2) comes in having finished second, second, third and third in his last four. He has not won in five, so he keeps running well without getting his head in front. He has run over this trip and on this ground, and stall 3 suits at Hamilton over a mile, which matters with thirteen going to post. Ralph Beckett’s horse has been off for 95 days, and that is the thing to get past. Four straight top-three finishes, though, and in a field this size 7/2 is a fair price for a horse that keeps turning up.
She finished 6-4-5 in her last three, and nobody will back FERN CLYDE (2:54 Hamilton, 9/4) on those figures alone. Go further back and she won six runs ago, and she has run over this six furlongs before. Tim Easterby does noticeably better at Hamilton than he does across the rest of the country, and he runs her again 13 days after her last start. Seven runners, soft ground, David Allan up. The recent finishes are the only thing counting against her, and at 9/4 the market has made too much of them.
Fast ground at Brighton
Brighton is good to firm, which is about as far from Hamilton as you can get on the same afternoon. DREAMBIRD DOLLY (1:30 Brighton, 11/2) has been second three times in her last six without winning, and that is how a horse ends up 11/2 in a nine-runner class 6 sprint. She has handled this trip and fast ground, she has had three weeks since her latest second, and Rossa Ryan rides for John Gallagher. That August day at Lingfield has since produced a class 6 winner, which is a small thing. There isn’t more to it than that, and at the price there doesn’t need to be.
Wolverhampton into the evening
Mr James Hills claims 5lb on BALOO’S BLUES (4:22 Wolverhampton, 11/4) for Charles Hills, and that allowance counts over a mile and a furlong in a class 6. He won three starts back and was second last time, and he comes back 13 days later. At Newbury on 23 July he was beaten half a length by one that has gone on to win a class 4, and that is decent form to bring into a class 6. There is no big hidden angle here. He is a horse in form, meeting a lower grade than the one his Newbury conqueror has since won in, at 11/4.
ZAFAAN (7:00 Wolverhampton, 6/4) drops in class from the grade he last won in, and that is where his case starts. He won three runs back and has finished fourth and fifth since, which reads like a horse going off the boil. The form around him says otherwise. At Worcester on 23 August he was beaten two lengths by one that has since won off a mark 6lb higher, and another horse from his recent races has won since as well. His recent opposition has been better than his placings make it look. Billy Loughnane rides. Charlie Clover does not have a good record at this track, so nothing is coming from the yard’s past here. The horse’s own form does the work, and 6/4 is fair.
ROSERUNNER (7:30 Wolverhampton, 9/2) has not run for 98 days, so we are trusting he is fit. Everything else points the right way. He was third last time, he has run over this trip on this surface, and he drops in class from the grade he last won in. At Kempton on 20 May he beat by a nose a horse that has won since, and two more from his recent races have also won. Oisin Murphy rides for Marco Botti from stall nine in a field of thirteen.
The last race of the night is where we ask the most of you. BACK AT ONE (8:30 Wolverhampton, 11/2) has form figures of 7-6-5-5.
He has not finished in the first four in any of those runs, and on those numbers he looks like a horse to leave alone. The Southwell run on 27 July is the reason we are not leaving him alone. He was beaten a length and a half that day by one that has won since, which puts his true level above what his finishing positions suggest. Stall 3 suits over this trip. He has been off for 63 days, so Roger Varian needs him ready first time back, and Ray Dawson rides in a field of twelve. At 11/2, the price is set by the finishing positions and not by the horses he was racing against.