Ryan Moore on an Aidan O’Brien sprinter in a Class 1 at the Curragh, and you can have 5/1. That price is there for a reason. BRUSSELS (2:35 Curragh, 5/1) has not won in six starts, and 640507 is the kind of form figure most people skip straight past.
Look at the clock instead. His times are getting quicker, and his recent runs are faster than his usual level. They also hold up in this grade instead of falling away when the company gets better. That is what you need in a nine-runner sprint over six furlongs on yielding ground, where there is nowhere to hide and no time to get back into it once you have been outpaced. He showed promise when fifth three runs back. He comes back 14 days after his last start, so fitness is not a worry, and stall two puts him on the inside with Moore free to take whatever position he wants. The losing run is what has made the price, and we are happy to take it.
Back at the Curragh at 4:55
MOON SAND (4:55 Curragh, 3/1) is the shortest price we are putting up today. His last three runs read ninth, ninth and sixth.
Both of those things are true and we are on him anyway. This is a 12-runner handicap over seven furlongs on yielding ground, and he has run over both the trip and the going before. Stall three is a good draw at the Curragh over this distance. Joseph O’Brien has him back out after only ten days, and trainers do not turn a horse round that quickly unless he came out of his last race well. He has to improve on what he has shown. In this field he does not have to improve by much.
Epsom
REGAL TIGER (1:37 Epsom, 7/2) has still to win a race, and that will put some punters off a horse who has finished second in two of his last three. The races he has lost are the reason we want him. At Windsor on 20 July he was beaten half a length, and the horse that beat him has since won a Class 4 off a mark 5lb higher than the day they met. Another horse from his recent races has won since as well, so the case does not rest on one result. Stall seven suits over this seven furlongs, Oisin Murphy rides, and there are only eight runners on good ground. The one question is whether he is fit after 69 days off.
Thirteen runners over a mile and a half at Epsom means a lot of traffic, and stall 12 is a better place to start from over this trip than it looks. FOX AVATAR (3:22 Epsom, 9/2) won five starts back, and on paper what has come since looks patchy, a sixth, a seventh, a third and a fourth.
Read it properly and it looks better. At Salisbury on 12 August he finished nearly two lengths behind a horse that has since won a Class 4 and now sits 7lb higher in the handicap. His own times have been getting quicker from a modest starting point. He is going the right way rather than already quick, and that is exactly when a handicapper is worth catching. Roger Varian has a noticeably better record at Epsom than he has overall, so this is one of his better tracks. Brendan Powell rides.
Ffos Las
UP THE ANTI (1:19 Ffos Las, 11/2) pulled up two starts back and has not won in six, so we are backing her for the price in a Class 6 sprint and nothing more. Here is what makes the price interesting. Her times have been improving from a low base, and 25 days since that last run is enough time to recover. Tony Carroll does better at Ffos Las than he does elsewhere. Stall six is a good draw over six furlongs here, and Myla Coppins claims 5lb in a field of twelve on good to soft. At 11/2, that is enough reason to back her.
BLONDIE LARRY (1:49 Ffos Las, 6/1) has been second in each of his last two, still without a win. Horses he finished close to in those races have gone on to win since, so the races he has been placing in are proving stronger than they looked at the time. He goes over five furlongs with only eight runners and a good draw in stall five. Jamie Osborne has had him off for 73 days, and that is the one thing counting against him.
Yesterday Arctic Dawn was placed at 11/2, and none of the headline picks won.
Ffos Las starts us off at 1:19, but the race that matters most comes at 2:35. It is six furlongs on yielding ground at the Curragh, with a sprinter who has lost six in a row and has Ryan Moore on his back.