Racecourse guide · Thursday 8 October
LITTLE JAYBEE has finished ahead of three horses in her last three runs that have all won since, one of them twice. She is up 3lb for winning, but this field is weaker than usual and her form can cope.
Price, stake and the full card →| Time | Race | Trip | Rnrs | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:30 | Your Elite Club Handicap StakesClass 6 | 2m 1f | 13 | – |
| 2:05 | EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 | 5f | 9 | – |
| 2:40 | Mda Consulting Ltd Handicap StakesClass 6 | 5f | 14 | Little Jaybee |
| 3:15 | British Stallion Studs EBF Beckford Stakes (Listed Race) (GBBPlus Race)Class 1 | 1m 6f | 13 | – |
| 3:50 | Seat Unique EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 | 1m | 14 | – |
| 4:21 | Find My Hospitality Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 | 1m 2f | 11 | – |
| 4:55 | Find My Hospitality Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 | 1m 2f | 10 | – |
| 5:25 | Mj Church Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 | 5½f | 12 | – |
| 5:55 | Spillers ULCA Fibre Handicap Stakes (0-55) - Arab Race | 1m 2f | 5 | – |
8 winners from 43 picks here on the daily card and the X thread. The biggest-priced of them:
Price is the one we put up. The full card record, losers included, is on the record page.
At least 6 runners in the last 14 days, at any track, winning with 25% or more.
| Time | Horse | Won here | This trip |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2:40 | Nordic Glory | 2 of 4 | 2 |
| 2:40 | Rinky Tinky Tinky | 2 of 4 | 2 |
| 2:40 | Savannah Smiles | 1 of 8 | 1 |
| 2:40 | Darkened Edge | 1 of 4 | 1 |
| 2:40 | Recon Mission | 1 of 3 | 1 |
| 2:40 | Lahina Bay | 1 of 3 | 1 |
| 4:21 | Albus Anne | 2 of 3 | 1 |
| 4:21 | Oman | 1 of 1 | 1 |
| 4:55 | Eutropia | 2 of 4 | 1 |
| 5:25 | Moe's Legacy | 4 of 12 | 4 |
| 5:25 | Cameley Days | 1 of 1 | 1 |
| 5:25 | Mortubo | 1 of 2 | 1 |
| 5:25 | Carefree Dream | 1 of 3 | 1 |
Plus 5 more with a single win here at another trip.
| Trainer | W–R | Here | All tracks | 1pt SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Carroll | 14–74 | 18.9% | 13.3% | -1.28 |
| Adrian Wintle | 11–80 | 13.8% | 8.6% | -13.24 |
| Grace Harris | 5–62 | 8.1% | 8.9% | -41.50 |
| Ollie Sangster | 4–15 | 26.7% | 13.5% | +3.53 |
| Eve Johnson Houghton | 3–17 | 17.6% | 11.8% | +5.00 |
| Michael Attwater | 3–19 | 15.8% | 6.9% | +66.50 |
| David Evans | 3–21 | 14.3% | 10.1% | +31.00 |
Minimum 15 runners and 3 wins here. The last column is a 1pt win bet on every one at starting price: a good strike rate the market already knows about shows as a loss.
| Jockey | W–R | Here | All tracks | 1pt SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rossa Ryan | 8–50 | 16.0% | 18.0% | -18.76 |
| Finley Marsh | 8–56 | 14.3% | 10.3% | -21.62 |
| George Bass | 4–20 | 20.0% | 10.4% | +1.00 |
| Darragh Keenan | 4–21 | 19.0% | 9.6% | +14.87 |
| Gina Mangan | 4–29 | 13.8% | 10.3% | +59.50 |
| Jack Doughty | 4–31 | 12.9% | 9.0% | -20.17 |
| Luke Morris | 4–33 | 12.1% | 11.4% | +3.63 |
| William Carson | 4–41 | 9.8% | 8.5% | -3.17 |
| Jack Mitchell | 3–16 | 18.8% | 12.3% | +12.83 |
| Edward Greatrex | 3–17 | 17.6% | 12.3% | -7.80 |
Minimum 15 rides and 3 wins here. The last column is a 1pt win bet on every one at starting price: a good strike rate the market already knows about shows as a loss.
No part of the draw wins more than its share of runners by enough to rule out chance, at any trip. Over 184 races, where a horse is drawn here has mattered less than it is often given credit for.
Not enough races yet on good or faster ground over 7f to a mile, 9f to 11f, 1m 4f and further.
On good to soft or softer ground: no trip here has the 60 races we need yet, so we do not show it. This fills in as the record grows.
Stalls are split into low, middle and high thirds within each race. Each bar is that third's share of the winners and the tick is its share of the runners, so a bar past its tick is winning more than its share. We only call a bias when the gap is at least 15% of that share and two standard deviations clear of chance.
Bath is a left-handed oval of 1 mile 4 furlongs and 25 yards with a run-in of nearly half a mile.
The home straight is four furlongs with a steady rise and turn.
At 780 feet it is Britain's highest flat racecourse, with no watering facility, so the going can become very firm in a dry summer.
Every figure on this page is counted from official flat results for Bath and refreshed each morning. Each section states its window, and anything below a minimum sample is left off rather than shown on thin numbers.
