Only five go to post for the 4:50 at Haydock, a class 3 over a mile and six on good to soft. The one we want is GLORY ROAD (4:50 Haydock, 3/1). At Newcastle on 25 July he finished three quarters of a length in front of a horse that has since won a class 3, and that horse is now rated 8lb higher than the day they met. That run looks a good deal better now than it did at the time. It wasn’t a one-off either. He won two starts back and has been placed in three of his last five. His recent efforts are right up with the best he has ever run, and he has been over this trip before. He was unplaced last time and comes back 34 days after it, which is the only thing to hold against him. With Ralph Beckett training, Hector Crouch riding and that Newcastle form now backed up by a winner, we’re happy to take 3/1 in a field this small.
Haydock
Three more of ours run at Haydock before Glory Road.
ANYASI (4:18 Haydock, 5/1) was fifth last time, and that’s the number most people will see first. It’s the wrong one to judge him on. Before it he had won twice in a row, and the horses he has been finishing near in his recent races keep going on to win. So the races he has been running in were stronger than they looked on the day. He has form over this seven furlongs and on this ground. Callum Rodriguez rides Haydock better than he rides most tracks. Roger Varian’s horse is 5/1 in an eleven-runner class 3 because of that fifth, and not because of what came before it.
ABLON (1:58 Haydock, 6/1) has been off for 69 days, and that’s a fair question to ask of her. The rest of her profile answers it. At Newbury on 2 July she went down by a head to one that has won since, and another horse from her recent races has also won. The form she brings has stood up. She won three starts back in a better grade than this class 5, and stall 6 is a good draw over this trip. Richard Hannon’s runner also gets Ben Pollard’s 5lb claim.
GIRL SCOUT (2:33 Haydock, 13/2) won last time and now drops in grade from that win. Her form reads 531, she’s back 21 days later and she has run over this trip before. That’s the whole case, and at 13/2 in a seven-runner class 4 it doesn’t need to be any longer.
Worcester
Worcester is one of Olly Murphy’s stronger tracks, and he sends LITTLE LEDGEND (1:30 Worcester, 5/4) there fresh from a win. The horse hasn’t finished outside the first three in his last five starts. Sean Bowen rides in a four-runner class 3 over two miles and seven furlongs on good ground, and he has form over the trip and in these conditions. His recent times aren’t special, and that’s the one real mark against him. Still, a horse who keeps finishing in the first three, a trainer who does well at the track and only three rivals make 5/4 a fair price.
The 2:40 is a different kind of race. It’s a sixteen-runner class 2 over two and a half miles, where 4/1 is a short price and a horse has to justify it. DOWN TO BUSINESS (2:40 Worcester, 4/1) does. He won last time out. His defeat at Ludlow on 4 February looks better now, because the one that beat him by three parts of a length has since won a class 4. His record says the good ground suits. His times have gone the wrong way lately, so he isn’t one to be carried away with. Dan Skelton trains and Harry Skelton rides, and in a race this big we’ll take a last-time-out winner whose old form has worked out.
Newcastle and Dundalk tonight
Six days after getting back to winning ways, INVINCIBLE CROWN (6:45 Newcastle, 13/8) is out again. For a sprinter in form that’s no bad thing. He has gone well over this course and distance before, and his record on the surface is good. He’s in an eight-runner class 6 over five furlongs, drawn in stall 1, with Ruth Carr training and James Sullivan riding. His times have eased a little, but at this level a horse who knows the track and has just won is the horse we want, and 13/8 is fair.
REGINALD CHARLES (7:15 Newcastle, 9/2) hasn’t won in six starts and comes back after 56 days. Neither of those puts us off. At Beverley on 3 July he went down by half a length to one that has since won and is now rated 5lb higher. On that line his own mark of 60 looks very fair. He was second three starts back and third last time, so he’s still finishing close. Stall 6 is a good draw over this mile. Geoff Oldroyd trains and P. J. McDonald rides, and at 9/2 in an eleven-runner class 6 the Beverley form is reason enough.
Over at Dundalk, INITIAL BLUE (6:00 Dundalk, 4/1) goes for a hat-trick in a thirteen-runner sprint handicap. We back him more for the price than on a strong opinion. His times have come down run by run and were never poor to begin with, and stall 4 is a good draw over six furlongs there. There’s nothing more to add than that. Jack W Davison trains and Jack Kearney rides, and 4/1 about a horse who has won his last two is fair.
None of yesterday’s headline picks won, and placed efforts were the best of it.
That leaves the 4:50 at Haydock, where we started. Five runners, 3/1, and a horse who finished in front of one that is now rated 8lb higher.