A horse that won last time out and still sits seventh of ten on the marks is one of two things. Either he is fully exposed and the win flattered him, or the handicapper has not caught up with him yet. ROCK OF ENGLAND (4:50 Doncaster, 11/2) is the second kind.
His times are the reason. They have climbed sharply over his recent runs, and they have climbed from a modest base, which is the pattern you want in a five furlong handicapper. A sprinter who was always quick and is now a shade quicker gets priced for it. A sprinter who started from an ordinary level and is now running well beyond it is the one the handicapper tends to be slow on. He is not a fast horse yet. He is a horse going the right way at speed, which is a different and more useful thing at 11/2 in a class 4.
The form backs the times up. Three wins in his last six and a second, with two fourths the only other results. Paul Midgley has him at Doncaster on good ground over a trip he has run before, and Oisin Murphy rides from stall seven in a field of ten.
Stall 14 of 16 in a five furlong handicap looks like the kind of draw that gets a horse crossed off. At Doncaster over this trip it is a good place to start from, and ADRESTIA (1:25 Doncaster, 5/1) has drawn it.
Her record needs explaining because on the face of it there is nothing there. Five starts without a win, and the last two were nowhere. But at Goodwood on 28 July she was beaten and still finished a nose in front of a horse that has since gone and won a class 3, so the level she ran to that day was real. Her recent times have been above what she usually runs to as well, which is not what a horse in decline does. She comes here after 47 days off, she has run over this trip and on this ground before, and the Crisford yard does noticeably better at Doncaster than it does across the board. Add the draw and the winless run is the only thing left arguing against her, and at 5/1 you are being paid to overlook it.
Bath is the one where we have least to say, so we will say it plainly. FOOTSTEPINTHEWOODS (5:30 Bath, 9/2) won two starts ago, was fifth last time, and goes for Emma Lavelle with Marco Ghiani up from stall 10 in a class 5 mile. At Windsor in July he finished two lengths clear of a horse that has since won, though that win came in class 6, so it confirms the form is sound rather than telling you it is anything more. The concern is that he is not a horse on the up. The fifth last time was a step back from the win, and nothing about him says a step forward is coming. He is on the list because 9/2 about a recent winner in a ten runner class 5 is a fair price for a horse whose form stands up, not because he is about to improve on it.
Yesterday none of the five headline picks won. Isaac Newton at 7/2, Orange Emperor at 5/1 and Star People at 10/3 all placed.
Oisin Murphy rides both of ours at Doncaster. Adrestia first, from stall 14 in a field of 16, then Rock Of England from stall seven in a field of ten. One is a horse whose form is better than her last two results say. The other is a horse whose next run should be better than anything he has done so far. They are two different bets on the same jockey, and the second is the one we are keenest on today.