KIRKDALE (8:10 Southwell, 6/1) has not run since the eleventh of April. That is 145 days, and it is the reason he is 6/1 in a class 4 tonight rather than something closer to half of it. Look either side of the gap. Two wins in his last five starts. He has gone well over course and distance before, and stall four is where you want to be over this trip at Southwell. Twelve runners means he needs to be ready first time back rather than needing the run, and that is a fair question we are not going to answer for you. What we will say is that the market is pricing the blank space in the form string rather than anything in the form itself, and at 6/1 we will take that side of it.
Yesterday gave us nothing. Five headline picks, none won, and only Lady Delila at 12/1 made the frame.
Southwell after dark
Kempton, twenty fifth of March. FRANSCHHOEK (7:10 Southwell, 5/2) was beaten three quarters of a length that day, and the horse that did the beating has since gone on to win a Group 3. That is the best single piece of form we hold anywhere on the card. Franschhoek has only run twice, a third and then a win last time out, so there is very little else to read, and there does not need to be much when the one serious test he has had came against a horse that turned out to be that good. Stall four is the right end of the draw over a mile here. The honest mark against him is that this is not a track where the yard has gone as well as it does elsewhere, and 5/2 in a nine runner class 4 is no gift. March carries it anyway.
PISCEAN STAR (7:40 Southwell, 4/1) drops below the grade he last won in, which is the simplest advantage in the game when the ability has not gone anywhere. Stall six suits over seven furlongs and the surface has been kind to him through his career. There is a form line underneath as well. Beaten a length at Kempton on the fifth of August by one that has since won a class 4.
MUCH (5:35 Southwell, 15/8) is the shortest price we take today and nobody is calling 15/8 value. The case is that his recent numbers are the best he has ever run to, he was second two starts back, and he has both this trip and this surface behind him. Seven runners, and on what we make of the race he is clear of the other six. Winless in five is why the market wants proof before it goes any shorter.
Billy Loughnane rides all three of those.
Haydock in the soft
York, tenth of July. NIGHTSINWHITESATIN (5:00 Haydock, 7/2) came home a length and three quarters clear of a rival, and that rival has since won a class 2 off a mark thirty three pounds higher than the day the pair of them met. Thirty three pounds. Nobody gets raised that far for being flattered once, and ours was in front of him when it started. She has been second in four of her last five, she comes back from forty eight days off, and stall two is a help over this trip on soft ground she has already handled. Her own recent times have been going backwards rather than forwards and we would rather put that on the table than leave it out of the write up. It does not undo July. The 7/2 is what you pay for a horse who keeps finishing second, not for one who cannot win, and this is a thirteen runner class 4 rather than something that needs a career best.
REVELIO (1:30 Haydock, 13/2) opens the day for us. His recent figures are as good as anything he has run to in his career, stall six is a favourable spot for this trip at Haydock, and twenty eight days since his last start leaves him fresh enough over a distance he already knows. Five runs without a win is what the 13/2 is paying for.
DIPLOMATA (3:17 Haydock, 13/2) drops in grade for William Haggas and Tom Marquand, and the reason we are on her is Thirsk in July. She was beaten a length there. The one that did it has since won a class 4. Third last time out, and this trip is no new experience.
Newcastle from lunchtime to dark
SATYRESS (1:42 Newcastle, 5/2) has won her last two, and the times behind those wins have come up hard from a modest starting point. That is the shape of a horse the handicapper has not finished catching. Stall seven helps over the trip, and the trip has always been her distance. She meets stronger company than she has been beating lately, which is the honest note to sound, but a horse travelling in this direction is worth staying with until it stops travelling.
FINLAGGAN (2:17 Newcastle, 5/1) has not won in six and has been off for sixty nine days, so the 5/1 is honestly earned. Against that, Pontefract on the second of June keeps looking better. The one that beat him a length that afternoon has won since and is now rated eight pounds higher than the day they met, and another runner out of his recent races has also won. Stall five is in his favour and David O’Meara has him back over a trip and a surface he knows.
Eight days after his last run, BIZARRE LAW (4:35 Newcastle, 13/2) is out again. A yard turning a sprinter round that quickly is usually a yard happy with what it has at home. Trip and surface both proven, thirteen runners, 13/2.
LIQUID COOLED (5:10 Newcastle, 7/2) runs for a stable that does better around Newcastle than its overall record suggests, and he has gone well over course and distance himself. Tonight’s ground is the ground his record wants. Seven runners over six furlongs from stall two is a straightforward enough puzzle. His recent times are ordinary and nothing we hold says they are about to sharpen, so the bet is about where he is running and what is under his feet rather than how fast he has been going.
Sixty four days between runs is a long time for a class 6 sprinter, and that is the question hanging over UNCLE SAM (5:40 Newcastle, 5/2). Most of the answer sits in a race at Southwell on the eighteenth of June. He was beaten a length and a quarter there. The horse that did it has since won off a mark seventeen pounds higher than the day they met, and has been put up again since, to twenty five pounds above that afternoon. That is a very long way for one race to travel in a summer. Another runner from his recent starts has won as well, so it is not one horse dragging the form up on its own. The company he was keeping in June has been getting better ever since while his own times have gone the other way, and at 5/2 from stall one over six furlongs the freshness is the part you are taking on.
DC COGENT (6:15 Newcastle, 9/2) is a price play and we will call it that. Stall four is a real help over the minimum trip here. A horse he finished half a length in front of at Thirsk in June has won since, and while that was only a class 6 and does not prove a great deal, it is not nothing either.
Lingfield and Salisbury
Six runners at Lingfield in the afternoon and TOOLATETONEGOTIATE (4:20 Lingfield, 9/2) is the one heading the right way. She was slow, and she is a good deal less slow now, the numbers climbing steeply off a low base. That is the look of a horse still in front of its mark rather than one that is already quick, and small fields tend to be kind to horses in that position because there is nowhere to get lost. Millie Wonnacott goes better round this course than their overall record suggests. Two flat runs since that win are why she is 9/2 and we are not going to oversell her past it.
BOYFRIEND (5:24 Salisbury, 4/1) runs in the best race we go into today, a class 3 over a mile off a mark of 92, and Goodwood on the first of August is where his case starts. He finished half a length in front of one that has since won a class 2. Another horse out of his recent races has won since as well, so the races he has been running in are throwing up winners rather than sitting still. His last few figures sit above his own par, and that matters more in a class 3 than it would in a class 6, because at this level nothing gets away with an off day. He was second last time out, thirty three days ago, over this trip, from a yard whose current run is the only reason we are not shorter than 4/1 in our own minds. Eleven runners, stall eight, and a horse good enough to be there on merit.
Of everything running today, the piece of form we most want to see tested again is that March afternoon at Kempton. Franschhoek finished three quarters of a length behind a horse that has since won a Group 3, and he goes at ten past seven tonight off the back of a win.