Two horses at Cartmel this afternoon are both rated 124 and both humping 167 lb. That is what happens when you go well over a summer at a track like this. The handicapper watches, and the reward for winning is a bigger burden next time.
The one we are keener on is KING ROLY (4:55 Cartmel, 11/4). He won last time out, and separately he has already been round this trip and on this ground, so nothing about the conditions needs working out. His recent figures are running above the level he normally posts. Mickey Bowen trains, James Bowen rides. The weight is the price of admission and we are paying it.
DIVILABOTHER (3:45 Cartmel, 3/1) is the other one, and we are not going to talk him up. Three wins in his last six starts is a run most horses in a class 2 would take, and he has raced on good to soft before, which is worth knowing without being worth much. The recent figures are ordinary and there is nothing underneath them pointing upwards. Add a stiff three miles and a furlong and a spot right at the wrong end of the weights and you have a bet on shape and price, not conviction. If you want to leave it alone we would not argue.
Epsom
The strongest single line on the card belongs to FRENCH AFFAIR (5:15 Epsom, 5/4). At Redcar on 8 August he had a head to spare over one that has since gone and won a class 4. Another rival out of his recent races has also won since, so the whole cluster is standing up rather than one convenient reference point. He has won his last two on top of that, and his figures have climbed sharply from a modest base, which is how a horse tells you the assessor has not caught up yet. Seven furlongs on good to soft, both of which he has met, from stall three, which helps. He is short and he ought to be.
EM FOUR (1:50 Epsom, 3/1) ran seven days ago at Brighton. The horse he held off by three quarters of a length that day has already won since, which is a quick turnaround on a form line and the reason we are here. Jamie Osborne sends him straight back out over six furlongs he knows on ground he knows, and stall five is where you want to be. The honest caveat is that his own figures are drifting the wrong way, so this rests on the Brighton race being worth more than it looked at the time.
Fourteen runners over a mile and a half at Epsom is a proper puzzle, and DIVINE KNIGHT (3:35 Epsom, 5/2) tackles it without a win in his recent starts. Look past that. Third twice in his last five, back after 30 days on a trip and a surface he has run over, and the times he is posting sit above his own usual level. William Haggas has him. A horse running better than his finishing positions suggest is the sort of thing a market takes a while to price.
Camber, gradient, the run down to Tattenham Corner. Plenty of horses simply do not want to know, which is why PERFECT SCOUNDREL (4:05 Epsom, 4/1) having gone well over course and distance counts for more here than the same note would anywhere else in the country. He won last time out and was placed in two of his other three most recent starts, so he arrives in the right sort of nick. Robert Havlin rides for Amanda Perrett. The queries are real. Forty six days off the track, 139 lb, and figures that sit below his best with no trend to lean on. The track knowledge is the concrete thing and that is what we are buying.
Chepstow
LION OF PERSIA (1:45 Chepstow, 5/1) finished a length and a quarter in front of a rival at Catterick on 15 July, and that horse has since won a class 4. Class 4 form turning up in a class 6 sprint is the whole case, and it is a good one. He was second last time out, he has been round five furlongs before, he goes from stall one, and Robert Cowell has him back after 47 days.
Same five furlongs later in the evening and MAGNA (5:10 Chepstow, 11/2) brings three wins from her last six. At Windsor on 27 July she was beaten three quarters of a length by one that has won since and is now rated 5lb higher than the day they met, which puts a floor under a form string that reads a little soft on the last two runs. Her figures are still above her own par. She has 139 lb, and that is the reason she is 11/2 rather than half of it.
LADY V (4:00 Chepstow, 5/1) is a mare rated 49 whose recent form reads 6-86, and four horses out of the races behind that string have won since. One of them was only two lengths in front of her at Salisbury on 23 May. Three more have come out of her other recent races and won. That is a lot of substance sitting behind a bare set of figures that puts nobody off. Her own numbers are up around her career best. Stall two is a berth that works over seven furlongs here and Rossa Ryan takes the ride. Ninety one days off the track is the question, and it is a real one.
STAYWITHERJOHNNY (5:45 Chepstow, 11/4) is going the right way rather than arriving quick. Her figures have been climbing sharply from a modest base, and at Leopardstown on 11 June she was a length behind one now rated 7lb higher that has won since. Five runners, a mile and a quarter, a trip she has run. She is a shortish price for a mare without a win in five, so take her at face value and not as a strong opinion.
Southwell
FAEBERON (2:42 Southwell, 5/2) beat a rival by a length and a quarter at Wolverhampton on 28 June. That one has won since and is now rated 5lb higher than it was that day. He won two starts back, was third last time, and the standard surface here is what his record says he wants. Southwell is also one of the stronger tracks for Simon and Ed Crisford measured against how they do generally. Stall one over a mile and three. His figures have eased back recently, so the case rests on the Wolverhampton line and the ground.
Fourteen runners over a flat mile and JUST TYPICAL (3:17 Southwell, 3/1) has not won in five. What he has done is finish half a length clear of a horse at Newmarket on 6 August that has since won and now runs off a rating 10lb higher. That is a good deal better than his recent finishing positions suggest. Stall 12 is a draw that works over the trip, and Ian Williams drops him in class for it.
BASED (5:35 Southwell, 7/2) heads to one of William Knight’s stronger tracks. A win four starts back and a third two starts back say he can compete at this level. The 131 lb is the obstacle.
Ripon and Roscommon
ROCK OF ENGLAND (4:10 Ripon, 11/4) was beaten a head at Thirsk on 1 August by one that has since won a class 4. Losing that narrowly to a horse of that standard is form worth a lot more than fourth, fourth reads, and another rival from his recent races has won since as well. He drops in class today compared with the grade he last won in, he has gone well over course and distance at Ripon, and Oisin Murphy takes the ride on a 17-day turnaround. Those two fourths in a row are why he is 11/4 rather than shorter. Given what was in front of him at Thirsk, that looks generous.
Last one, and it is late. MINELLA BUOY (7:55 Roscommon, 4/1) is drawn 19 of 19, and round Roscommon over a mile and a half that is a berth that works. He ran 11 days ago so the fitness is not in question. Beyond the draw there is not a great deal to say, and we are not going to invent any.
Yesterday four picks returned a winner in Kinswoman at 6/5 and a place from Inns And Out at 4/1.
The 5:15 at Epsom is where our strongest opinion sits. French Affair beat a class 4 winner by a head three weeks ago and he has been going the right way since.