A length and three quarters at Sandown on 3 July. That is what separated PERSICA (1:50 York, 7/1) from the winner, and that horse has since gone and won a Group 3. Persica has won since himself. So the run that looked ordinary at the time was nothing of the sort, and he goes to the Knavesmire this afternoon on ground and over a trip he knows, with figures that have been climbing and that hold their shape at this level. Class 1 company does not find him out. Seven to one for a horse whose best recent form points straight at the front end of a race like this is the price of the day.
An hour and ten minutes later York gives us the second one. ZAVATERI (3:00 York, 6/1) has stall two over seven furlongs, which is where you want to be on this track, and horses he has run alongside in his last few starts have been winning since. He was second two runs back. The fifth last time is on the page and we are not going to pretend it isn’t, but the times he has been posting sit comfortably at this grade and are heading upwards rather than down.
Newmarket, and a yard worth watching
The strongest single piece of form on the whole card belongs to KHUSKHAS (2:44 Newmarket (July), 9/2). Here on 26 June she came home two lengths clear of a rival, and that one has since won off a mark 5lb higher than it carried the day they met. Winning after the handicapper has had his say is the endorsement that actually means something, and it does not come along often. Her own times are sharply better than they were off what was a modest starting point, which is the shape of a horse the assessor has yet to catch up with. A further rival out of her recent races has also won. Add course and distance form she has already gone well on, and a trainer who fares far better here than his overall record suggests, and the fourth last time looks a small thing to hold against her.
Same trainer, same track, early evening. LARA ANTIPOVA (5:04 Newmarket (July), 7/2) was second last time and her Ascot run from 24 July has been franked, the horse she finished half a length in front of having won a class 4. Two more from her recent races have won since. Her figures have dipped a touch and we would rather they hadn’t, but the raw form is there and 7/2 over five furlongs in a seven-runner race is a fair ask.
RAJAKING (2:09 Newmarket (July), 7/2) is the one who has already done the winning. He got the job done last time out after four runs that went nowhere much, and the July course race on 4 July where he went down by a length reads far better now, the horse in front of him having won a class 4 since. Another from those races has won too. Stall six is a help over six furlongs here, and this is one of his trainer’s stronger tracks. Thirteen runners is a proper handicap and he carries 136lb, but the direction of travel is right.
The Redcar evening
Six selections between 5:25 and 8:00, and the meeting is worth staying with.
THE CALTONIAN (7:00 Redcar, 9/2) is the pick of them. At Ayr on 20 July he was beaten a length and three quarters by a horse that has since won a class 3 and is now rated 7lb higher than the day they met. Two further rivals from his recent races have won since, so that is three separate lines out of the same handful of runs pointing the same way. He is winless in six, which is why he is 9/2 and not 2/1, but his recent times sit above his own level, he drops in grade tonight, he was fourth last time out and that was his best effort of the run, and he comes back after just fifteen days. Stall six is the one you want over this five furlongs and 217 yards. There is nothing on the card we would rather have than this at the price.
MIGHTY QUIET (6:00 Redcar, 11/4) has a strong Salisbury line from 14 June, two lengths clear of a rival that has since won a class 4 and now sits 10lb higher in the weights. She was third last time and second four starts back, so she keeps turning up. Stall six suits over a mile and a quarter here. Sixty-nine days off is the question, and her recent times have been under her best without anything to suggest they are on the way back up, so this is bought on the collateral form rather than the clock.
Draw is the whole of the case for ALWAYS BLUE (6:30 Redcar, 9/4). Stall six over this trip at Redcar is a genuine advantage, and she arrives placed twice in her last four and running close to her best off 70. Four runs without a win is on the page. At 9/4 you are backing a consistent mare from the right berth, and that is the bet.
Ground is what brings us to QUEEN TAMARA (5:25 Redcar, 3/1). Good is what her record wants, the trip is one she has handled, and she won four starts back before finishing second. The two efforts since were poor and she has been off for sixty-four days, which you have to take on trust. Take the last two runs out and this is a 3/1 shot that reads shorter.
IRISH NECTAR (7:30 Redcar, 7/2) went a length and three quarters clear of a rival at Southwell on 27 July and that one has won a class 4 since. One more from his recent races has won as well. He is winless in six and his times are drifting the wrong way, which we would rather they weren’t, so the case is the form he is beating rather than any suggestion he is on the up.
Eighteen runners at 8:00, and LITTLE BECK ANNIE (8:00 Redcar, 13/2) has today’s ground in her favour on her record. She won two starts back. At Southwell in May she was beaten a nose by one that has won since, though that was a class 6 and we are not going to make more of it than it is. Another from those races has won too. Fifty-seven days off and figures that have been below her own level are both real, and 13/2 in a field this size is about right.
The rest
U S S CHARLESTON (4:25 Chester, 5/2) went to Goodwood on 30 July and came home a head in front of a rival that has since won a class 2. That is the best line on the horse and it is a good one. He is lightly raced, still on the way up, has already run over today’s trip and on this ground, and his recent times are above his own par. He was fourth last time, which is why he is 5/2 rather than odds on, and honestly this is more about the price and the shape of the horse than anything overwhelming on the numbers.
MOUNTBATTEN (6:15 Lingfield (AW), 11/8) is the shortest thing we are on all day and the reason is simple. His times are improving hard from a low base, which is the classic well-treated improver, and he won three starts back before finishing second last time over this distance and going. Six runners, and he is the one they have to beat. The yard runs below its usual level at Lingfield, so nothing in the case rests on the track.
ORCHARD (5:10 Lingfield (AW), 9/2) has been placed on his last two starts without getting his head in front. Ffos Las on 29 June is the reason we are with him. He had the best part of two lengths on a rival that has won a class 4 since and is now rated 5lb higher than the day they met. He knows this trip and comes back off a 28-day break.
MARAZION (4:00 Curragh, 7/1) has won and finished second in her most recent starts and rivals she has run close to have been winning since. Fifty-five days off and 140lb to carry in a twelve-runner field are both real, and this is a price play at 7/1 rather than a horse we are certain about.
MOJITO DES MOTTES (4:52 Newton Abbot, 13/2) was pulled up last time. That is the honest starting point and there is no way round it. He is winless in five. What we have is a placed profile over this trip and going and an Ascot run from March where he finished 1.2 lengths ahead of a rival that has since won a class 4, which is a modest piece of form and we would not call it more than that. Six runners on good to firm and 13/2 is what makes it worth a look.
Yesterday our five headline picks returned one winner in Safari Dream at 9/2, with Zighy at 4/1 and Hilltop at 4/1 among three placed.
The Caltonian at 9/2 in the 7:00 is where our strongest opinion sits tonight, and if the Ayr form keeps working the way it has been, that price will not be there long.